Sennar at risk of partial encirclement
We reported Monday that the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) attack on Jebel Moya “had the appearance of a fast-moving raid, rather than a full-scale invasion of the kind that targeted Wad Madani last December.”
Today we are partially modifying that assessment. Several factors lead us to conclude that the RSF operation in Sennar State is more serious than a mere tactical raid, though it remains unclear if they have the strength or intention to attack Sennar City itself, or are merely threatening it.
In the first place, RSF have kept control of Jebel Moya rather than withdrawing, contrary to some reports that the Sudan Armed Forces quickly recaptured the area. SAF attempted a counterattack Monday afternoon, unsuccessfully.
Secondly, RSF brought artillery with them to Jebel Moya. Initially, we stated that videos of these artillery trucks probably were filmed along the Wad al-Haddad axis, north of Sennar City. Subsequently, however, we verified through geolocation that they were on the Kosti-Sennar road, only 22 km west of Sennar City.
Thirdly, recently there have been increased RSF troop movements in Al Jazira State, north of Sennar. RSF announced the arrival of reinforcements in Jazira State and held a big rally three days before the assault on Jebel Moya. The large gathering was used for propaganda purposes, as RSF’s media team released a video (below) showcasing their strength. Such a large gathering would also have been an opportunity to discuss operational issues, command
structures, and means of communications.
Fourthly, civilians began fleeing Sennar en masse yesterday, amid reports of RSF incursions into the city outskirts. While this is not itself evidence that RSF intend to assault the city, it does suggest a lack of public confidence in SAF’s defenses. The evacuation began during the day and continued into the night. Videos from Sennar showed civilians leaving in buses,
riskshaws, cars, and lorries.
 attack on Jebel Moya){kind=link}